Akio KAWATO
Former Japanese diplomat
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Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to the United States on September 23–25. In Japan, there was considerable commotion over President Trump greeting him at the airport and emphasizing in his welcoming remarks that the United States and China had been allies during World War II. Some people even rushed to conclude that Washington had decided to form an alliance with China over Japan’s head.
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This Is Not a U.S.-China Alliance
This is an overreaction. Around the world, it is customary for leaders to extend the highest level of hospitality to a state guest. Both leaders said that their countries had been allies against Japanese militarism during World War II. This, too, was an attempt to find a historical reference that could help project friendship. There were few other obvious examples to draw on. In fact, as explained below, the United States was opposed to the Chinese Communist Party.
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There was also an electoral calculation. With the midterm elections approaching, Trump wanted the visit to produce something positive he could present to voters, and therefore made a show of accommodating China. One example was the agreement under which the United States would refrain from raising tariffs on Chinese goods, while China would lower some tariffs on imports from the United States. This means that, for now, the prices of consumer goods coming from China will not rise because of additional tariffs. It is a substantial benefit for American consumers, retailers and distributors, and farmers.
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Both leaders presumably understood that talk of a past “alliance” did not accurately reflect the history of their respective governments. The United States was indeed allied with China during World War II, but its ally was the Nationalist government. That government was fighting not only the Japanese military but also the Communists at home.
After the war, the United States continued providing extensive economic and military assistance to the Nationalist government to contain the spread of communism. When that government retreated to Taiwan, Washington continued to recognize it and did not establish diplomatic relations with the newly founded People’s Republic of China.
Later, the Nixon administration, which sought China’s help in bringing the Vietnam War to an end, began a rapprochement in 1971. Nixon visited China in 1972, and formal diplomatic relations were established in 1979. Thus, portraying the wartime alliance as an alliance between Washington and today’s government in Beijing would hardly accord with either country’s history textbooks.
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What U.S.-China Rapprochement Means for Japan
Nevertheless, the summit clearly illustrates a recent shift in U.S.-China relations. Japan must understand the nature of that shift and decide how to respond.
I believe that a rapprochement between the United States and China is also good for Japan. Relations between Japan and China have become excessively strained. If Washington and Beijing improve their relations, both Japan and China will have less reason to maintain an unnecessarily confrontational relationship.
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The United States and China also appear to have reached a tacit understanding that maintaining the status quo is the best course on Taiwan. Both presumably want to avoid developments that could lead to a direct military confrontation. China has not given up on Taiwan, but using military force or a blockade to bring about regime change there would carry major risks. The United States, for its part, would not want to expose its shortcomings to the world in defending Taiwan, as it did when it failed to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
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If so, Japan’s current policy goal of raising defense spending to 4 percent of GDP becomes less urgent. For the time being, Japan should rely upon the strength of U.S. forces operating from bases in Japan as a deterrent against China and other potential threats, while gradually reducing its excessive dependence on the United States.
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There is no reason to panic over the supposed emergence of a “U.S.-China alliance.” Japan needs American military power. Access to the world’s largest consumer market—the United States—is equally important. Nor does the United States intend to abandon Japan. The benefits it receives from Japan are greater than those it receives from China.
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U.S. bases in Japan are essential to maintaining an American presence in the western Pacific. Close cooperation with Japan also substantially strengthens Washington’s position in its diplomacy with India and the ASEAN countries. Japanese direct investment supports one million jobs in the United States. Purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds with Japanese public and private funds are an essential factor in restraining increases in U.S. long-term interest rates (Japanese investors buy these securities because interest rates are higher than in Japan, not because Washington forces them to do so).
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Throughout world history, alliances have changed. In 627 BC, during China’s Spring and Autumn period, Qin, still a relatively small state, sought to expand eastward. It abandoned its previous partner, Jin, with which it had maintained a relationship close to an alliance, and joined forces with Chu, their former common enemy.
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In nineteenth-century Europe, Germany’s rise intensified the shifting of alignments among the major powers. In 1881, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia formed the League of the Three Emperors, helping to prevent Russia from aligning with France. When Germany refused to renew its treaty with Russia in 1890, Russia moved closer to France. By 1894, the two had formed the Franco-Russian Alliance, creating an opposing alignment to Germany and Austria-Hungary—a division that contributed to World War I.
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U.S.-China relations have not reached anything like that stage. Even so, as the United States becomes increasingly inward-looking, Japan must strengthen its own defense capabilities—although 4 percent of GDP is probably unnecessary—and broaden its diplomatic options. Changes in the international political and economic order create opportunities. But a wrong decision can also be fatal.
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Japan will not return to the fatal mistake it made before World War II: militarism and domination by the armed forces. It should uphold its existing democratic legal framework, encourage thorough discussion across government and society, and calmly carry out the changes it needs.
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