Russia

  • “Civilizational Rupture”

    About twenty-five years ago, I published a collection of essays titled Toward a World Where Meaning Disintegrates. It traced the social transformations unfolding in Russia, Western Europe, the United States, Uzbekistan, and Japan. What I tried to argue there was that several of the core values that had sustained the modern world were beginning to lose their absolute authority. .…

  • Gulf Security After the Iran War

    Akio KAWATO . Back in March, the American geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko wrote something interesting. Citing a report by Reuters, he argued that the Gulf states — having been drawn into a war with Iran without prior consultation and having suffered both economic and military damage in the process — were beginning to question whether they should continue relying on…

  • “From ‘Markets = Wealth’ Back to ‘Territory = Wealth’”

    Watching the way Trump and Putin speak and act, one cannot help but feel how fundamentally different their mindset is from ours. Seizing land through connections, force, and money, then developing it for enormous profit—Trump seems to view the world with the mentality of a ruthless land developer, which he really is. It is like a schoolyard bully who never…

  • Putin’s September Magic: Managing Russia’s Parliamentary Elections

    Akio KAWATO (Japan’s DCM in Moscow 1998~2002) Lately, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have lost momentum. His approval ratings have been slowly slipping. Even a look at the Kremlin’s official website shows fewer presidential events, both domestic and diplomatic. During the International Women’s Day ceremony in early March, television cameras caught him coughing rather unnaturally, which sparked quiet speculation…

  • After America: What Middle Powers Can Still Build

    Iran ceasefire talks are now beginning. Had the war continued, Iran’s retaliation might well have threatened the very survival of Gulf civilization itself, while also exposing the limits of U.S. military power and potentially bringing an end to America’s unipolar dominance. The ceasefire has, at least for now, bought everyone some breathing room. . Even so, this latest attack on…

  • Russia, cursing the dollar, cannot forego it

    Russia never misses a chance to square off against the United States. The dollar has long been one of its favorite targets. The message has been simple enough: why keep using the dollar, that tool of American imperialism? Why not settle trade in rubles or Chinese yuan instead, and show the Yankees that the world can move on without them?…

  • Dark Clouds Gathering on Putin’s Horizon: Russia’s September Parliamentary Elections

    The war in Ukraine has now entered its fifth year. Not only Ukraine but Russia itself—despite being a great power—has been badly worn down. The recent surge in oil prices caused by the war with Iran has given Moscow some temporary breathing room. Yet the underlying strains remain severe. Thousands of tanks and armored vehicles have been destroyed in Ukraine,…

  • Should Japan go nuclear or can it?

    (Currently Japan’s prime minister TAKAICHI Sanae is in Washington D.C., an official visit long planned. During the meeting with President Trump, discussions are likely to cover not only the current situation regarding Iran but also the future direction of the Japan-U.S. alliance in the Asia-Pacific region. For reference, I have posted below my own article on Japan’s nuclear armament. While…

  • How to Survive Trump’s Armageddon

    For some time now, analysts have been pointing to the possible end of the U.S.-led postwar order. With the Strait of Hormuz now facing the risk of closure, global stock markets, oil prices, and other indicators are swinging wildly. The atmosphere feels almost apocalyptic. ・ History shows many moments when an existing system of security and economic stability suddenly collapsed.…

  • Dialogue with the Late Professor Joseph Nye

    (This essay was originally written in March 2025. Since then, Professor Joseph Nye has passed away. The issues discussed here, however, remain urgent. I have therefore updated and reposted it.) On February 25, 2025, I read in Newsweek Japan an article by Joseph Nye, the architect of the concept of “soft power,” titled “Why America Holds the Advantage in a…