For some time now, analysts have been pointing to the possible end of the U.S.-led postwar order. With the Strait of Hormuz now facing the risk of closure, global stock markets, oil prices, and other indicators are swinging wildly. The atmosphere feels almost apocalyptic.
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History shows many moments when an existing system of security and economic stability suddenly collapsed. The fall of the Roman Empire and the upheavals surrounding World War II and the decline of the British Empire are classic examples. The key question is always the same: will chaos persist, or will a new order eventually emerge?
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At the root of the current turmoil lies the hollowing out of the U.S. economy and its increasing dependence on government debt. President Trump has treated the containment of fiscal deficits and the prevention of TB markets’ collapse as his highest priorities. For this purpose he proudly raised tariffs, only to see the policy fail after the Supreme Court ruled the measures illegal.
His second objective—winning the midterm elections in November—was supposed to be achieved by boosting popularity through ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. That effort also failed.
Now, having effectively given up on dreams of a Nobel Peace Prize, he has instead pushed forward with military interventions in places such as Venezuela and Iran.
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In times like this, the European members of NATO—longstanding guardians of the traditions of liberty and democratic thought—should remind themselves of their historical role and help guide the United States back toward a responsible course. Instead, they are themselves drowning in economic stagnation and domestic demands for redistribution, increasingly ensnared by populism.
Israel, for its part, insists on pursuing absolute security regardless of the consequences for its surroundings, continuing a hard-line policy with little visible long-term strategy.
China, meanwhile, faces economic difficulties and signs of weakening control over its own military, leaving it in no position to pursue the conquest of Taiwan. The Chinese economy, massive though it is, thrashes about awkwardly. The government keeps corporations afloat with subsidies while trying to compensate for weak domestic demand through export expansion—an approach that increasingly provokes resentment around the world.
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Amid this global disorder, one must ask: what remains intact of the modern values of liberty, democracy, and the rule of law?
The United States itself provides one answer. Even Trump has not been able to overturn the principle of the rule of law embedded in the American constitutional system. In January, the Supreme Court—despite having a majority of justices appointed by Trump—ruled his tariffs illegal, necessitating refunds to companies.
Another example occurred in Milwaukee that same month. When 3,000 officers from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) were deployed to intensify the roundup of undocumented immigrants, two citizens protesting the operation were shot dead, triggering a major public outcry. The city government moved to legislate limits on ICE activity, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem—who oversaw ICE—was ultimately dismissed by Trump. The clearly defined relationship between federal and state authority likely prevented the situation from spiraling into something resembling civil war.
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Looking at international institutions, Trump has withheld U.S. contributions to the United Nations. Yet the amount—just over $800 million out of a total UN budget of less than $4 billion—is not large enough; we can find a modus vivendi easilly. Moreover, Trump’s attempt to create an alternative body called the “Board of Peace” has failed to gain support from European governments.
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The U.S. dollar will probably maintain its dominant role in global payments and savings. It remains the most widely used currency abroad and is simply convenient. The role of recently introduced stablecoins also deserves attention. Nevertheless, for various reasons the dollar will likely depreciate against other currencies over time—something that has happened before, as in the Plaza Accord of 1985.
The global trading system—embodied by institutions such as the WTO—will remain in place, since most countries’ tariff structures are still anchored to WTO rules. Systems governing shipping, aviation, and telecommunications will also endure. The global division of labor in manufacturing, the so-called supply chain, will keep its main features, fostering investments in countries with low wages and elevating their economy.
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The one major uncertainty is artificial intelligence: how it will reshape the world. Will AI serve humanity, or will human beings end up serving AI?
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In this turbulent environment, Japan must keep sight of the true meaning of progress: improving people’s living standards and expanding human rights.
Since the Meiji Restoration (1868), Japan has worked steadily to modernize and rationalize its society. Yet the task remains incomplete. Today we can even see a troubling decline in the quality of some politicians and bureaucrats. Decisions should not be reduced to populist and self-righteous majority rule. They must be reached through careful deliberation and reasoned debate.