Economy

  • Why Are Environmental Activists So Quiet in This Heat?

    It’s been scorching hot day after day. People say that if you fall on the pavement, you can suffer serious burns from the heat of the asphalt. Even the cicadas seem to have disappeared. These days, their larvae may be cooked underground before they ever emerge, and summer arrives with hardly a chirp. . Come to think of it, it’s…

  • The history of the Warburg family

    (I lately came across this intriguing piece in my own email magazine, “The Kaleidoscope of Civilization”. Let me post this for fun.) . Akio KAWATO There are several banks around the world bearing the name Warburg. They form part of a global financial network connected to the Jewish Warburg family. . One member of the family, Paul Warburg, moved to…

  • What Happens If “Lehman 2.0” Hits?

    Akio KAWATO . Today, May 7, the Japanese stock market surged, with the Nikkei reaching historic highs. Hopes for a ceasefire involving Iran also helped push stock prices upward. Yet beneath the surface, the financial markets of both Japan and the United States are showing troubling signs. In both countries, long-term interest rates are rising—meaning confidence in government bonds is…

  • “From ‘Markets = Wealth’ Back to ‘Territory = Wealth’”

    Watching the way Trump and Putin speak and act, one cannot help but feel how fundamentally different their mindset is from ours. Seizing land through connections, force, and money, then developing it for enormous profit—Trump seems to view the world with the mentality of a ruthless land developer, which he really is. It is like a schoolyard bully who never…

  • The Foundations of “Modernity” Are Gone—So We Need New Institutions

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　.Akio KAWATO In Japan, Europe, and the United States, we still debate politics using the modern values of “freedom” and “democracy.” But the real foundation supporting those values was the economic development of Western Europe since the 17th century—above all, the dramatic rise in productivity brought by manufacturing. As manufacturing expanded, more people were able to earn solid middle-class incomes…

  • Is Lehman 2.0 Around the Corner? What Happens If It Hits?

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Akio Kawato In September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought the world economy to a temporary halt. Today, excess liquidity in Japan and the United States, stock market bubbles, and ever-expanding fiscal deficits are raising fears of “another 2008.” Yet even if the next crisis resembles 2008, the scenery will be somewhat different. That difference is worth examining. .…

  • Does the Iran War Herald the Advent of the “Euro Renminbi”

    Akio Kawato Since the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID shock of 2020, the United States has continuously expanded the supply of dollars. Federal debt has now exceeded the size of annual GDP. Policymakers fear that, at some point, this could erode confidence in U.S. Treasuries, trigger a surge in interest rates, and destabilize public finances. . Could the current…

  • How to Survive Trump’s Armageddon

    For some time now, analysts have been pointing to the possible end of the U.S.-led postwar order. With the Strait of Hormuz now facing the risk of closure, global stock markets, oil prices, and other indicators are swinging wildly. The atmosphere feels almost apocalyptic. ・ History shows many moments when an existing system of security and economic stability suddenly collapsed.…

  • Japan Is Richer Than Its GDP Suggests

    (This essay first appeared in Newsweek Japan in 2011. The basic situation has not changed very much since then, so I am reposting it here. I plan to update the argument soon—although the U.S. or even the global economy might collapse before I get the chance.) ・ These days I often hear Japanese friends complain, “Japan has become poor.” When…