Europe

  • From Network-Centric Warfare to AI Warfare

    In the 1990s, under the guidance of thinkers such as Andrew Marshall and Arthur Cebrowski, the U.S. military developed an advanced operational concept known as Network-Centric Warfare. The idea was to connect large reconnaissance and strike drones such as the Predator, cruise missiles, ground forces, and other military assets through communications networks. Information from the battlefield would be gathered and…

  • Has the Japanese Economy Really Been Shrinking?

    (This column originally appeared in the November 2021 issue of my newsletter “Kaleidoscope of Civilization.” The basic situation has not changed much since then, so I am reposting it here.) . .Akio KAWATO Ever since the 2010 publication of the book The Real Cause of Deflation: Economies Move with Population Waves, a powerful idea has taken root in Japan: that…

  • “Civilizational Rupture”

    About twenty-five years ago, I published a collection of essays titled Toward a World Where Meaning Disintegrates. It traced the social transformations unfolding in Russia, Western Europe, the United States, Uzbekistan, and Japan. What I tried to argue there was that several of the core values that had sustained the modern world were beginning to lose their absolute authority. .…

  • Inequality? Perhaps. But the Rich Already Pay Most of the Income Tax

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　.Akio KAWATO In today’s advanced economies, discussion of “inequality” has become almost constant. Manufacturing has declined, while finance, IT, and other sectors increasingly concentrate income in the hands of a relatively small elite. . In the United States, the top 10 percent of earners now receive roughly 45–50 percent of national income. In Britain, the figure is around 35–40 percent;…

  • Comedic Variants for European Serious Operas

    The other day I went to see Wagner’s Lohengrin—performed by the Nikikai Opera Company with the Tokyo Metropolitan Symphony Orchestra. The performance itself was magnificent. But the opera? The libretto struck me as Wagnerian in the worst sense: childish, contrived, and absurdly solemn. And musically this is still early Wagner—endless repetitions of the same booming triads: do-mi-sol, so-shi-re, over and…

  • The history of the Warburg family

    (I lately came across this intriguing piece in my own email magazine, “The Kaleidoscope of Civilization”. Let me post this for fun.) . Akio KAWATO There are several banks around the world bearing the name Warburg. They form part of a global financial network connected to the Jewish Warburg family. . One member of the family, Paul Warburg, moved to…

  • What Happens If “Lehman 2.0” Hits?

    Akio KAWATO . Today, May 7, the Japanese stock market surged, with the Nikkei reaching historic highs. Hopes for a ceasefire involving Iran also helped push stock prices upward. Yet beneath the surface, the financial markets of both Japan and the United States are showing troubling signs. In both countries, long-term interest rates are rising—meaning confidence in government bonds is…

  • The Foundations of “Modernity” Are Gone—So We Need New Institutions

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　.Akio KAWATO In Japan, Europe, and the United States, we still debate politics using the modern values of “freedom” and “democracy.” But the real foundation supporting those values was the economic development of Western Europe since the 17th century—above all, the dramatic rise in productivity brought by manufacturing. As manufacturing expanded, more people were able to earn solid middle-class incomes…

  • Is Lehman 2.0 Around the Corner? What Happens If It Hits?

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Akio Kawato In September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought the world economy to a temporary halt. Today, excess liquidity in Japan and the United States, stock market bubbles, and ever-expanding fiscal deficits are raising fears of “another 2008.” Yet even if the next crisis resembles 2008, the scenery will be somewhat different. That difference is worth examining. .…

  • Does the Iran War Herald the Advent of the “Euro Renminbi”

    Akio Kawato Since the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID shock of 2020, the United States has continuously expanded the supply of dollars. Federal debt has now exceeded the size of annual GDP. Policymakers fear that, at some point, this could erode confidence in U.S. Treasuries, trigger a surge in interest rates, and destabilize public finances. . Could the current…