World Trends

  • Could U.S. Treasuries Take a Tumble in September?

    Simon and Garfunkel used to sing: August, die she must, The autumn winds blow chilly and cold, September, I’ll remember, A love once new has now grown old. Are the U.S. treasuries following a similar fate? . The amount of outstanding U.S. government debt has now grown to slightly more than one year’s GDP. When Treasury securities mature, the government…

  • Rethinking Japan’s Place in a Rising Asia

    (This article appeared in Newsweek Japan on August 18.) On August 8, news broke that both South Korea and Taiwan had surpassed Japan in exports during the first half of this year. Since the mid-1990s, I had already grown weary of hearing the world sneer that “Japan is finished—even in Asia.” This latest news felt almost like the final blow.…

  • Is America’s Consumer Market, the Largest in the World, a Mirage?

    What enables the United States, for all its current troubles, to throw its weight around as much as it does is the fact that it still has by far the world’s largest consumer market—more than twice the size of China’s. Many countries depend heavily on exports to the United States to keep their own economies going. . But there is…

  • Where the Space and AI Investment Frenzy May End Up: Lessons from Britain’s Railway Mania

    Elon Musk’s SpaceX went public on June 12, raising the equivalent of roughly $80 billion in a single IPO. Although its share price has eased somewhat since then, the company’s market capitalization still stood at about $1.8 trillion in mid-July, making it one of the seven to ten most valuable companies in the world. For comparison, the ten largest companies…

  • Can AI Navigate the Chaotic Middle East with Theory Alone?

    Akio KAWATO Recently, “collaborating with AI” has become something of a trend. I decided to try it myself, using ChatGPT as a discussion partner to explore a question that has been bothering me: Is today’s tangled Middle East even something that can be meaningfully forecast? . This in fact is a question about methodology in international relations. Japan’s leading political…

  • Beyond the Anthropocene: Toward the Age of AI

    (I originally wrote this in December 2024, but I suspect the basic situation has not changed much since then.) Will ChatGPT Surpass Human Intelligence? — An Interview with ChatGPT While finishing the manuscript of my book In Search of the Lost Modernity, I relied quite a bit on ChatGPT. For example, I asked its opinion about one of the arguments…

  • Will U.S.–North Korea Relations Start Moving Again? And What Should Japan Do?

    .　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Akio KAWATO On the 14th, almost at the same moment that President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran, he posted on social media an old photograph of himself standing beside Kim Jong Un. Perhaps he was sending a message: “Iran is done. North Korea is next.” . It is not a bad idea. If the historical grievances and accumulated…

  • Why Are Environmental Activists So Quiet in This Heat?

    It’s been scorching hot day after day. People say that if you fall on the pavement, you can suffer serious burns from the heat of the asphalt. Even the cicadas seem to have disappeared. These days, their larvae may be cooked underground before they ever emerge, and summer arrives with hardly a chirp. . Come to think of it, it’s…

  • The Summer Russia Chose Freedom

    . 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Akio KAWATO When people think of Russia today, they usually think of dictatorship, imperial ambitions, and the long shadow of Vladimir Putin. Yet there was a time when things looked very different. . After Mikhail Gorbachev launched his reforms in 1985, Soviet and Russian society began moving toward openness and democracy. That process reached its peak in August 1991,…

  • From Network-Centric Warfare to AI Warfare

    In the 1990s, under the guidance of thinkers such as Andrew Marshall and Arthur Cebrowski, the U.S. military developed an advanced operational concept known as Network-Centric Warfare. The idea was to connect large reconnaissance and strike drones such as the Predator, cruise missiles, ground forces, and other military assets through communications networks. Information from the battlefield would be gathered and…