Watching the U.S. Navy hesitate to push into the Strait of Hormuz during the current Iran conflict, one begins to wonder whether the old scenario—U.S. carrier strike groups rushing to the rescue in a “Taiwan contingency”—has already lost much of its credibility.
That does not mean Taiwan is defenseless. Quite the contrary. Taiwan could potentially destroy a Chinese amphibious invasion force using land-based missiles, drones, and even sea-borne unmanned systems.
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Meanwhile, a large-scale purge of senior officers is reportedly underway within the upper ranks of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army under Xi Jinping. What this has to do with a potential Taiwan operation, however, remains unclear. At the same time, U.S.-based analyst Drew Thompson has pointed out that, since late February, Chinese military aircraft have not entered Taiwan’s airspace at all. This marks a striking contrast with the latter half of last year, when Chinese incursions were frequent and aggressive.
Whether this shift reflects the removal of hardline commanders during the purge, or a deliberate effort to avoid unexpected escalation ahead of the National People’s Congress in March and the (postponed) visit to China by Donald Trump originally planned for April, is difficult to say.
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In any case, with the added uncertainty of a U.S. president whose policy toward China appears unsettled, Japan would do better to focus less on legal debates over how far it can cooperate with U.S. forces in a Taiwan contingency. Instead, it should place greater emphasis on diplomatic efforts—seeking political agreements that uphold non-use of force and preserve the status quo.
Akio Kawato
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