Akio KAWATO
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Back in March, the American geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko wrote something interesting. Citing a report by Reuters, he argued that the Gulf states — having been drawn into a war with Iran without prior consultation and having suffered both economic and military damage in the process — were beginning to question whether they should continue relying on the United States for their security.
The Gulf monarchies were, in a very real sense, pushed to the brink of losing the modern societies they had painstakingly built. As a result, a new idea has begun to emerge: instead of depending entirely on Washington, could the Gulf states construct a regional security framework that includes Iran itself?
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This desire for a “security system without the United States” is not unique to the Gulf. Similar thinking has been spreading among the European members of NATO as well. Around the world, there is a growing fashion for discussing strategic autonomy from America.
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Still, such sentiments have surfaced many times before, only to fade away once the immediate crisis passed.
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In the Gulf case, much will depend on how the confrontation with Iran ultimately ends. Even if reconciliation with Tehran becomes possible, a fundamental question remains: can Iran actually be trusted?
And if matters deteriorate again, do the Gulf states possess any credible means of deterring Iranian military power on their own? In other words, many will conclude that the continued presence of American forces remains necessary as a deterrent against Iran.
Meanwhile, Israel will almost certainly work to ensure that U.S. forces remain in the region.
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Under such circumstances, if anyone seriously wishes to create an “Iran–Gulf reconciliation” framework without direct American leadership, Chinese involvement would probably become indispensable.
Alternatively, Pakistan — which has reportedly been acting as a mediator in the current ceasefire negotiations — could join an Iran–Gulf security mechanism as a kind of proxy for China.
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But India would likely find it intolerable for its rival Pakistan, together with China, to establish a strategic foothold in the Gulf region.
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If that happens, the major importers of Gulf oil — namely Japan, South Korea, and Australia — could also end up participating in some form of agreement aimed at preserving stability in the Gulf.
That would be a very large and consequential undertaking indeed.
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