The Middle East

  • Japan should avoid unnecessarily provoking China－On the Occasion of the Renewal of the National Security Strategy

    Akio KawatoFormer Ambassador to Uzbekistan; Former DCM, Embassy of Japan in Russia . (Japan is currently conducting its once-every-few-years review of national security policy. As a result, the country’s three core strategic documents—the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Program—are being revised. Recently, the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS) published a collection of…

  • Can AI Navigate the Chaotic Middle East with Theory Alone?

    Akio KAWATO Recently, “collaborating with AI” has become something of a trend. I decided to try it myself, using ChatGPT as a discussion partner to explore a question that has been bothering me: Is today’s tangled Middle East even something that can be meaningfully forecast? . This in fact is a question about methodology in international relations. Japan’s leading political…

  • From Network-Centric Warfare to AI Warfare

    In the 1990s, under the guidance of thinkers such as Andrew Marshall and Arthur Cebrowski, the U.S. military developed an advanced operational concept known as Network-Centric Warfare. The idea was to connect large reconnaissance and strike drones such as the Predator, cruise missiles, ground forces, and other military assets through communications networks. Information from the battlefield would be gathered and…

  • “Civilizational Rupture”

    About twenty-five years ago, I published a collection of essays titled Toward a World Where Meaning Disintegrates. It traced the social transformations unfolding in Russia, Western Europe, the United States, Uzbekistan, and Japan. What I tried to argue there was that several of the core values that had sustained the modern world were beginning to lose their absolute authority. .…

  • Gulf Security After the Iran War

    Akio KAWATO . Back in March, the American geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko wrote something interesting. Citing a report by Reuters, he argued that the Gulf states — having been drawn into a war with Iran without prior consultation and having suffered both economic and military damage in the process — were beginning to question whether they should continue relying on…

  • Does the Iran War Herald the Advent of the “Euro Renminbi”

    Akio Kawato Since the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID shock of 2020, the United States has continuously expanded the supply of dollars. Federal debt has now exceeded the size of annual GDP. Policymakers fear that, at some point, this could erode confidence in U.S. Treasuries, trigger a surge in interest rates, and destabilize public finances. . Could the current…

  • After America: What Middle Powers Can Still Build

    Iran ceasefire talks are now beginning. Had the war continued, Iran’s retaliation might well have threatened the very survival of Gulf civilization itself, while also exposing the limits of U.S. military power and potentially bringing an end to America’s unipolar dominance. The ceasefire has, at least for now, bought everyone some breathing room. . Even so, this latest attack on…

  • Israel’s Gamble, America’s Limit–The War on Iran

    War is always shrouded in a haze of rumor and information control. In this latest conflict with Iran , one could not help but be impressed—at least initially—by Israeli intelligence capabilities and American military prowess, especially with the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Yet the response that followed has been strangely muted, as if something were being held…