War is always shrouded in a haze of rumor and information control. In this latest conflict with Iran , one could not help but be impressed—at least initially—by Israeli intelligence capabilities and American military prowess, especially with the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Yet the response that followed has been strangely muted, as if something were being held back. Both Israel and the United States now appear to be running up against the limits of their power.
.
Reports have been mounting that U.S. radar systems in the Gulf have come under attack, degrading airspace control. On March 8, Iran reportedly struck the U.S. Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain—deep inside the Persian Gulf—with drones, killing as many as 21 personnel.
The U.S. Navy’s pride, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, was supposedly rushing from the Pacific toward Iran, yet it did not appear in the Persian Gulf. One might assume hesitation—perhaps the Strait of Hormuz is too dangerous to traverse, given the threat from Iranian anti-ship missiles.
Instead, The New York Times reported on March 17 that a fire had broken out in a ventilation shaft in the ship’s laundry area. It took 30 hours to extinguish, destroyed some 600 berths, and rendered basic services like laundry inoperable, forcing the vessel to divert to Greece for repairs. After ten months at sea, the crew was reportedly near exhaustion. A sobering development.
.
Attention then turned to reports that the amphibious assault ship Tripoli, carrying 3,000 Marines, had departed the Pacific for Iran—presumably to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. But Kharg lies deep inside the Persian Gulf. Any approach would require passage through the very Strait of Hormuz—hardly feasible under current conditions.
Meanwhile, reports suggest that a 3,000-strong airborne unit in the United States is preparing for deployment. Even if they could reach Israel, how would overflight permissions be secured from neighboring states to reach Iran? And upon arrival, they would likely face formidable air defenses, including Russian-supplied S-300 surface-to-air missile systems.
.
Overreach Breeds Failure
.
In the end, Israel’s strategy—to align with the Gulf states, draw in U.S. forces, and eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all—appears to have stalled. Faced with the prospect that their own oil and gas infrastructure—and even vital desalination facilities—could be obliterated by Iran as a result of what many see as Israel’s reckless escalation, Gulf states may find themselves directing their anger less at Iran than at Israel.
.
The United States, for its part, no longer depends heavily on Gulf oil. At the same time, American voters—already facing inflation fueled by rising energy prices—are likely to grow increasingly opposed to this war. Israel has long exercised influence in Washington D.C. through political contributions, but in the November midterm elections, association with Israel could become a political liability rather than an asset. In a worst-case scenario, U.S. forces might withdraw from the Gulf altogether, and President Trump could even face mounting pressure to step down.
.
What then? The United States, under a “President Vance” who is deeply wary of foreign wars, could retreat into a Western Hemisphere–focused posture. Europe, meanwhile, might embark on a fiscal and defense-driven renaissance, led by Germany. In such a world, Israel could find its very foundations eroding, with emigration accelerating.
.
History offers a warning: overreach often leads to collapse. In August 1991, hardliners in the Soviet Union, the military, intelligence and security services, attempted a coup to halt Gorbachev’s efforts to federalize the state. The coup failed in the face of public resistance, paving the way for Boris Yeltsin’s rise—and ultimately the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In trying to stop reform, the hardliners instead hastened not just federalization, but disintegration.
Since the time of Abraham—when Arabs and Jews first diverged in the narratives of the Old Testament—the stage of Middle Eastern history has turned again and again. It may now be turning once more, bringing into view an entirely new map. (translation from Japanese by Chat GPT)