Japan Trends

  • Japan should avoid unnecessarily provoking China－On the Occasion of the Renewal of the National Security Strategy

    Akio KawatoFormer Ambassador to Uzbekistan; Former DCM, Embassy of Japan in Russia . (Japan is currently conducting its once-every-few-years review of national security policy. As a result, the country’s three core strategic documents—the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Program—are being revised. Recently, the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS) published a collection of…

  • How Japan Realized Economic Development 1: The Myth of the “Japanese Model”

    （Until the rise of South Korea and, later, China, Japan’s economic development was a major focus of attention for developing countries and former socialist nations seeking economic reform. This was because Japan was the only non-white country to have achieved industrialization.Although Japan’s economy is not currently attracting much global attention, there will likely come a time when interest returns. In…

  • Will U.S.–North Korea Relations Start Moving Again? And What Should Japan Do?

    .　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Akio KAWATO On the 14th, almost at the same moment that President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran, he posted on social media an old photograph of himself standing beside Kim Jong Un. Perhaps he was sending a message: “Iran is done. North Korea is next.” . It is not a bad idea. If the historical grievances and accumulated…

  • Why Are Environmental Activists So Quiet in This Heat?

    It’s been scorching hot day after day. People say that if you fall on the pavement, you can suffer serious burns from the heat of the asphalt. Even the cicadas seem to have disappeared. These days, their larvae may be cooked underground before they ever emerge, and summer arrives with hardly a chirp. . Come to think of it, it’s…

  • Has the Japanese Economy Really Been Shrinking?

    (This column originally appeared in the November 2021 issue of my newsletter “Kaleidoscope of Civilization.” The basic situation has not changed much since then, so I am reposting it here.) . .Akio KAWATO Ever since the 2010 publication of the book The Real Cause of Deflation: Economies Move with Population Waves, a powerful idea has taken root in Japan: that…

  • Can IWON Optical Communication Technology Become Japan’s Savior?

    . KAWATO Akio IWON stands for Innovative Optical & Wireless Network, an optical communications technology now being developed by NTT. Light is also a form of electromagnetic wave, but it has several advantages over conventional radio-based communications. Above all, it allows vastly larger data capacity and longer-distance transmission. Data transmission capacity, NTT alleges, could increase by as much as 125…

  • “Civilizational Rupture”

    About twenty-five years ago, I published a collection of essays titled Toward a World Where Meaning Disintegrates. It traced the social transformations unfolding in Russia, Western Europe, the United States, Uzbekistan, and Japan. What I tried to argue there was that several of the core values that had sustained the modern world were beginning to lose their absolute authority. .…

  • Inequality? Perhaps. But the Rich Already Pay Most of the Income Tax

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　.Akio KAWATO In today’s advanced economies, discussion of “inequality” has become almost constant. Manufacturing has declined, while finance, IT, and other sectors increasingly concentrate income in the hands of a relatively small elite. . In the United States, the top 10 percent of earners now receive roughly 45–50 percent of national income. In Britain, the figure is around 35–40 percent;…

  • What Happens If “Lehman 2.0” Hits?

    Akio KAWATO . Today, May 7, the Japanese stock market surged, with the Nikkei reaching historic highs. Hopes for a ceasefire involving Iran also helped push stock prices upward. Yet beneath the surface, the financial markets of both Japan and the United States are showing troubling signs. In both countries, long-term interest rates are rising—meaning confidence in government bonds is…

  • After America: What Middle Powers Can Still Build

    Iran ceasefire talks are now beginning. Had the war continued, Iran’s retaliation might well have threatened the very survival of Gulf civilization itself, while also exposing the limits of U.S. military power and potentially bringing an end to America’s unipolar dominance. The ceasefire has, at least for now, bought everyone some breathing room. . Even so, this latest attack on…