Japan’s economy

  • Could U.S. Treasuries Take a Tumble in September?

    Simon and Garfunkel used to sing: August, die she must, The autumn winds blow chilly and cold, September, I’ll remember, A love once new has now grown old. Are the U.S. treasuries following a similar fate? . The amount of outstanding U.S. government debt has now grown to slightly more than one year’s GDP. When Treasury securities mature, the government…

  • Rethinking Japan’s Place in a Rising Asia

    (This article appeared in Newsweek Japan on August 18.) On August 8, news broke that both South Korea and Taiwan had surpassed Japan in exports during the first half of this year. Since the mid-1990s, I had already grown weary of hearing the world sneer that “Japan is finished—even in Asia.” This latest news felt almost like the final blow.…

  • How Japan Realized Economic Development 1: The Myth of the “Japanese Model”

    （Until the rise of South Korea and, later, China, Japan’s economic development was a major focus of attention for developing countries and former socialist nations seeking economic reform. This was because Japan was the only non-white country to have achieved industrialization.Although Japan’s economy is not currently attracting much global attention, there will likely come a time when interest returns. In…

  • In Japan innovations occur within companies rather than by loners

    Japan’s public broadcaster NHK airs a program called Project X. Each episode tells the story of people who joined forces to develop a new technology or build something remarkable—a massive dam, the QR Code, a lunar exploration robot (tiny ones), and many others. One of the pleasures of the program is that the people who actually did the work return…

  • A Sunshade for the Planet

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　.Akio KAWATO Summer is coming again, and with it the heat. After years of record-breaking temperatures, even COP—the annual United Nations climate conference—seems to be losing its sense of direction. The more desperately the world tries to cut CO₂ emissions, the more the thermometer appears to mock us by climbing ever higher. . As a result, some rather creative ideas…

  • Shoot the Pianist: The Fate of Today’s Central Banker

    The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates to 1 percent at its policy meeting on the 15th. Inflationary pressures have been building, and the widening interest-rate gap between Japan and the United States has helped push the yen into what often seems like an endless decline. . Then, today, came a surprise: BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda…

  • Has the Japanese Economy Really Been Shrinking?

    (This column originally appeared in the November 2021 issue of my newsletter “Kaleidoscope of Civilization.” The basic situation has not changed much since then, so I am reposting it here.) . .Akio KAWATO Ever since the 2010 publication of the book The Real Cause of Deflation: Economies Move with Population Waves, a powerful idea has taken root in Japan: that…

  • Can IWON Optical Communication Technology Become Japan’s Savior?

    . KAWATO Akio IWON stands for Innovative Optical & Wireless Network, an optical communications technology now being developed by NTT. Light is also a form of electromagnetic wave, but it has several advantages over conventional radio-based communications. Above all, it allows vastly larger data capacity and longer-distance transmission. Data transmission capacity, NTT alleges, could increase by as much as 125…

  • What Happens If “Lehman 2.0” Hits?

    Akio KAWATO . Today, May 7, the Japanese stock market surged, with the Nikkei reaching historic highs. Hopes for a ceasefire involving Iran also helped push stock prices upward. Yet beneath the surface, the financial markets of both Japan and the United States are showing troubling signs. In both countries, long-term interest rates are rising—meaning confidence in government bonds is…

  • Is Lehman 2.0 Around the Corner? What Happens If It Hits?

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Akio Kawato In September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought the world economy to a temporary halt. Today, excess liquidity in Japan and the United States, stock market bubbles, and ever-expanding fiscal deficits are raising fears of “another 2008.” Yet even if the next crisis resembles 2008, the scenery will be somewhat different. That difference is worth examining. .…