Chinese humanoid robots that can run, jump, and perform all sorts of acrobatic feats have been attracting a great deal of attention lately. Watching them, one might even begin to wonder whether the day will come when China’s 1.4 billion people themselves are replaced by robots.

Well, that is a joke. But what, then, has happened to Japan, a country that once seemed to have a particular fondness for humanoid robots?

.

Remember Sony’s robot dog Aibo and Honda’s ASIMO? At the 2005 World Expo in Aichi, Toyota even demonstrated a robot that could play the trumpet, precisely controlling its artificial “lips” to produce the notes.

.

Back then, ordinary Japanese were fascinated by humanoid robots. Yet Japan’s major corporations eventually stopped pursuing their development. Behind that decision was a fairly simple judgment: there was no large market for humanoid robots.

After all, robots used in factories or homes do not necessarily have to look like human beings. If all you want a robot to do is substitute for human arms and legs, companies such as FANUC and Yaskawa Electric already command substantial shares of the global market for industrial robotics and related equipment.

.

So it would hardly be surprising if some Japanese engineers who could not give up their dream of developing humanoid robots were eventually hired by Chinese companies at generous salaries and passed on their expertise. There is nothing particularly unusual about this. Throughout history, technology and skilled people have moved across borders—from the Orient to Europe, from Europe to the United States, and from the Korean Peninsula to Japan (and vice versa).

.

(SONY’s AI robot “Aibo”is a dog)

.

Some people say that China’s humanoid robots are not really acting autonomously—that somewhere behind the scenes, a human being is jumping and twisting around while the robot simply receives signals and copies the movements. But judging from the videos, that does not appear to be the whole story.

.

One reason Japan can still take some comfort is that Japanese manufacturers remain extremely strong in some of the precision components essential to advanced robots. Nabtesco alone, for example, says it holds about 60 percent of the global market for precision reduction gears used in the joints of medium- and large-size industrial robots. Japanese companies have also traditionally been very strong in servo systems as well.

.

But this advantage should not be exaggerated. China is rapidly localizing the production of key robot components, and in some areas it already has enormous manufacturing capacity. If Japan simply sits back and takes comfort in its present technological lead, China may eventually overtake it there as well.

.

Our last hope, then—joking, of course—may be that the Chinese themselves will all be replaced by robots.