German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is scheduled to visit Japan on October 28. He will then travel to South Korea and Singapore. Since his itinerary appears to deliberately bypass China, some in Japan may see this as an opportunity to draw Germany into a coalition aimed at containing China.
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However, Chancellor Merz already visited China in February, a country with which Germany maintains deep economic ties. During his upcoming visit, he may join Japan in cautioning China against restrictions of rare earth exports. But he is unlikely to go any further and participate in any scheme to “contain China.” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, for her part, will probably also avoid provoking China.
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Instead, I hope Merz’s visit will provide an opportunity to advance the idea of cooperation and partnership among middle powers, as advocated by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and others.
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By “advance,” I do not mean merely paying lip service to the idea. I mean laying the groundwork for middle powers to speak with one voice and thereby restrain the major powers from acting unilaterally.
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One possible approach would be to establish a number of relatively open-ended forums, each devoted to a major area of international affairs.
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These could include a forum on political and security issues, another on preserving the values of freedom and democracy, one on maintaining market economies and free trade, and yet another on promoting the free exchange of information and culture. Each forum could have a rotating chair country, which would also serve as its secretariat.
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This is just one example of what could be done. I do not know what the Japanese government has prepared for Merz’s visit, and I certainly do not expect the two leaders to reach major agreements on such matters during this brief encounter.
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Still, I very much hope that the two leaders will at least express their intention to “deepen discussions on how to translate cooperation and partnership among democratic, market-oriented middle powers into concrete action.”
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Even if no preparations have been made for such an initiative, a simple statement to that effect at their joint press conference would be a good start.
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