. Akio KAWATO
On the 14th, almost at the same moment that President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran, he posted on social media an old photograph of himself standing beside Kim Jong Un.
Perhaps he was sending a message: “Iran is done. North Korea is next.”
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It is not a bad idea. If the historical grievances and accumulated mistrust can be eased, and if the coexistence of North and South Korea can be legally formalized, lasting stability on the Korean Peninsula may no longer be a distant dream. There remain difficult issues, of course—not least North Korea’s nuclear weapons and, for Japan, the unresolved abductions of Japanese citizens.
With that possibility in mind, it may be useful to review how we arrived at the current situation.
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During the Korean War, North Korean forces advanced with remarkable speed after hostilities began in June 1950. The tide turned dramatically, however, when United Nations forces landed at Incheon in September. Once UN troops crossed the 38th Parallel, China—which had previously hesitated to intervene—succumbed to pressure from Stalin and sent its “People’s Volunteers” into Korea in November 1950. They pushed the UN forces back.
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A prolonged stalemate followed. By June 1951, the Soviet Union was already proposing ceasefire negotiations.
At that point, however, Mao Zedong—who had fiercely resisted Stalin’s earlier requests for Chinese intervention—became the principal obstacle to a ceasefire. He had apparently realized that military successes in Korea could strengthen his political position at home. Only after Stalin’s death in March 1953 did Mao finally agree to end the fighting.
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In July 1953, an armistice agreement was signed at Panmunjom between North Korean and Chinese military commanders on one side and the United Nations Command on the other. No peace treaty followed. As a result, what was intended as a temporary ceasefire has now lasted more than seventy years.
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South Korean President Syngman Rhee, who remained committed to reunifying Korea by force, refused to sign the armistice. In fact, the armistice was signed by military commanders rather than political leaders. Mao himself did not sign it, either. On the other hand Kim Il Sung did, in his capacity as commander of North Korean forces.
In theory, therefore, North and South Korea remain in a state of war. Only a formal peace treaty can provide a lasting foundation for stability on the peninsula.
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Interestingly, North Korea’s newly revised constitution, revealed in May, not only removed references to the “reunification of the fatherland” but also explicitly defined the border with South Korea. This could be interpreted as preparation for an eventual peace treaty.
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Kim Jong Un and Japan
Japanese journalist Taeko Ishii has pieced together a rather melodramatic account of the childhood of Kim Jong Un and his sister Kim Yo Jong.
Because their mother was not Kim Jong Il’s official wife, the two grew up largely in the shadows. They were sent to school in Switzerland as children. According to Ishii’s account, however, the aunt who cared for them there—and her children—eventually defected from Switzerland to the United States. The young Kim siblings then abandoned their studies and returned to North Korea. One can only imagine the psychological scars such experiences may have left behind.
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At the same time, the brother and sister do not appear to harbor any particular resentment toward Japan. There have been several reports that Kim Jong Un visited Japan with his Japanese-born mother while still a boy and became fascinated with Tokyo Disneyland.
Perhaps this is only my impression, but the Kim siblings seem noticeably less inclined to direct personal insults at Japanese leaders than they are toward leaders in South Korea or the United States.
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Could Japan help North Korea overcome its excessive fear of the United States and take a step into the world of the twenty-first century—assuming, of course, that the issues of nuclear weapons and the abductions are first addressed?
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At the same time, if President Trump decides to revive negotiations with North Korea, Japan should work to ensure that South Korea does not end up paying a disproportionate price for any agreement. That will require close coordination between Prime Minister Takaichi and President Trump.
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