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Author: akiokawato

  • Trump Lectures Europe on Freedom and Democracy

    Since the birth of the Trump administration, a strange argument has continued between Washington and the European Union. It often feels like the pot calling the kettle black. At the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, Vice President J.D. Vance made a speech, the essence of which can be summarized as folllows:

    “ The greatest threat to democracy is not external powers such as Russia or China, but the erosion of our fundamental values from within.

    Attempts to invalidate election results in Romania, censorship on social media across the EU, and restrictions on freedom of expression in countries such as the United Kingdom and Sweden all threaten democracy itself. In the United States as well, the previous administration tried to control information.

    When citizens express concerns about immigration policy and mass migration—about their livelihoods, their safety, and their values—that is the very essence of democracy. Politicians should not ignore those voices.”

    •

    Not all sounds wrong, but Vance’s message was this: opposing the policies of the Trump administration amounts to a departure from the civilization of freedom and democracy. Immigration, in this view, was a mistaken policy of the Democratic Party, and those who do not belong shoulld be forcibly deported.

    •

    One year later, at the same conference, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made essentially the same argument, though in more diplomatic language (once again, this is the author’s summary) :

    “The United States and Europe should walk together. America is prepared to act alone if necessary, but our hope is… to accomplish this together with our friends in Europe.

    Europe should resist trends such as large-scale immigration, multiculturalism, extreme environmental policies, and reductions in defense spending, and to rise up in defense of “Western civilization.”

    •

    What the two gentlemen meant to say would be this:

    “Europe, stop acting so superior. Don’t lecture us about Trump being a populist or undermining democracy. Look at yourselves—you have allowed uncontrolled immigration and are now in danger of losing confidence in your own civilization. Instead of preaching to us, support the policies of the Trump administration, and then we will give you protection from the threats.”

    •

    This is a crude argument.

    To begin with, it is difficult to see how many of the Trump administration’s policies conform to the spirit of freedom and democracy. For example, the enforcement of immigration policy has sometimes produced incidents that appear inconsistent with the rule of law. In early January in Minneapolis, two civilians were shot and killed by armed agents of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

    Moreover, Steve Bannon, a former close adviser to Trump, has cultivated ties since the first Trump administration with anti-government and far-right groups across Europe. Many of these movements openly admire strongman politics. Their priority is not the preservation of democratic principles but measures such as the forced deportation of immigrants.

    •

    Yet Vance, Rubio, and Bannon suggest that these very forces are the ones capable of defending Europe’s civilization of freedom and democracy. According to them, agreement with their claims—and with the policies of the Trump administration—is itself proof of one’s commitment to freedom and democracy・・・・・

    This is a skewed argument. Principles of liberty and democracy have a deep and long history. They were mainly developed in Western Europe, though even there democracy tends to degrade into populism, threatening freedom of many people. The principles of freedom and democracy require serious discussion, above all for the sake of humanity itself, free from partisan debate.

    Those who are interested in a broader historical perspective on the meaning of freedom and democracy may wish to read my book The World History of Freedom and Democracy: In Search of the Lost Modernity. It was recently published in Japan. Free English translation can be obtained below.

    ・

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hiRK7kjbX0Hxd2NOxPqtQlVWgjDHgKCr/edit

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MB0Me9P5Lpa2HGceuJUdMqqQ2CRHQSxa/edit

  • Dialogue with the Late Professor Joseph Nye

    (This essay was originally written in March 2025. Since then, Professor Joseph Nye has passed away. The issues discussed here, however, remain urgent. I have therefore updated and reposted it.)

    On February 25, 2025, I read in Newsweek Japan an article by Joseph Nye, the architect of the concept of “soft power,” titled “Why America Holds the Advantage in a New Cold War with China.” His argument was reassuring: taken as a whole, the United States still holds the upper hand—above all because of its alliances and its soft power.

    I knew Professor Nye in Boston. Our conversations were never casual. He would begin with rapid, pointed questions—an oral examination of sorts—and only after you demonstrated clarity would he truly engage. I respected that discipline. So let me engage him again.

    　　　

    I have long supported the U.S.–Japan alliance. Japan needs it strategically and economically. More importantly, I believe postwar Japan’s system of freedom and democracy has been a success. But today I am uneasy. President Trump appears convinced that the postwar international order disadvantages the United States—and he seems willing to dismantle it.

    　　　

    After World War II, alliances such as North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the U.S.–Japan Security Treaty were built to contain authoritarian expansion. The Soviet Union consolidated Eastern Europe. In Asia, the Korean War erupted. The Cold War was not ideological theater; it was a response to real expansion by coercive regimes.

    Today’s U.S.–China rivalry grows from similar structural tensions. But if America now conducts itself as a power openly seeking territorial acquisition or economic privilege—whether in Greenland, Gaza, or elsewhere—it blurs the moral distinction that once defined it. If great powers all behave the same way, then soft power disappears. Only hard power remains. And hard power alone is not enough.

    America’s advantages—its vast consumer market, the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, unmatched military capacity—are formidable. But if relationships are reduced to transactions based purely on leverage, then allies become temporary partners of convenience. Europe and Japan will conclude that they must hedge, diversify, and ultimately rely more heavily on themselves.

    Meanwhile, China’s soft power—once easy to dismiss—is quietly growing

    For years I assumed authoritarian China would never attract young people abroad. Yet rising living standards have modernized Chinese society in visible ways. In animation, gaming, and digital culture, Chinese firms have absorbed Japanese techniques and are now competing globally—including inside Japan itself. For young Japanese, China is no longer an abstraction. It is part of their everyday world.

    At the same time, America’s structural weaknesses are becoming harder to ignore. Neither subsidies under President Biden nor tariffs under President Trump will restore manufacturing competitiveness on their own. The deeper problem is short-termism. Shareholder pressure discourages long-term investment. Corporations pursue margin optimization over durable quality. Transactional logic crowds out strategic patience.

    Even the U.S. military—the core pillar of American power—faces drift. The traditional banner of “defending freedom and democracy alongside our allies” has been lowered. Recruitment is declining. Innovation is increasingly concentrated in a handful of large defense contractors. Shipbuilding capacity has eroded to the point that American firms seek partnership capital from South Korean shipyards.

    In past decades, so-called neoconservatives attempted to spread democracy through regime change. The results were often instability and suspicion toward the United States. Ending that approach was wise. But replacing it with improvised acts—purchasing territories, forcibly removing foreign leaders without a clear strategic framework—does not restore coherence. It projects unpredictability. And unpredictability erodes trust. If America abandons its moral vocabulary while retaining only its material power, it will still be strong—but it will no longer be followed.

    For Japan, the path is clear. We must strengthen our own defense capabilities. We must avoid unnecessary confrontation with China while firmly preserving our domestic system of freedom and democracy. And we should work to build international mechanisms that restrain armed aggression by any state that violates the rights of others.

    Dear Joe, your concept of soft power still matters. But soft power cannot survive without moral consistency. If America wishes to lead in this new era, it must decide whether it is merely a great power—or still a principled one. The future of modern civilization may depend on that choice.

  • Twilight of the Modernity

    (This thesis was published last year, but the situation has barely changed)

    In China and India, various domestic factors hinder growth. But in this respect, the

    United States, the European Union, and Japan are not in a better position, either. The West is now deprived of many attributes of the modern era, which facilitated their economic growth.

    In Western European countries, the youth has largely lost their cultural backbone; they read far less Greek and Roman classics in school, and they do not go to church. The healthy sense of independence and individualism that used to be prominent among Western whites has been worn away by the universal PC game culture, Japanese anime, and cosplay.

    In the United States, freedom and democracy have practically become the prerogative of the successful class. In corporations, executives covet exorbitant compensation, and labor union leaders justify their positions by demanding exorbitant wage hikes and pensions that force corporations to flinch and flee abroad.

    　　　

    In the US political funding is now effectively unlimited (with anonymity guarded), which allows the rich to control the political process. They use members of Congress to try to shrink the federal government and reduce the tax burden. And the neocon forces of the Democratic Party do not hesitate to intervene in the politics of developing countries by force. Unless people learn a little more to restrain their desire for the sake of others’ well-being, they will destroy their own country.

    　　　

    The Industrial Revolution in Reverse

    　　　

    In the 19th century, the rapid industrialization of Western Europe greatly increased the number of people belonging to the “middle class”. The middle class demanded the right to vote, and political parties responded by establishing democratic systems based on the premise that all adults have the right to vote.

    Now, however, with the exodus of manufacturing industries overseas, the industrialized countries are in a situation of a “reverse industrial revolution“. In other words, the manufacturing industry is shrinking and the number of relatively high-wage workers and employees generated by the manufacturing industry is decreasing; only the democratic system of one man, one vote remains.

    The middle class, with its declining standard of living, is permanently dissatisfied and supports populist politicians and parties that make empty promises to relieve their

    plight, leading beyond populism to the rise of an authoritarian far-right. The “modern era” of democracy supported by rising economic and living standards” is in the twilight.

    　　　

    The Advent of the “New Age of Robotics and AI”

    　　　

    In the midst of this confusion, the “new age of robotics and AI” is arriving, whether we like it or not. Society may be divided into a very few super elites who design, use, and are used by robots and AI, and a large army of “non-elites”.

    　　　

    In developed countries, the status and role of the “state” is declining, as more and more young men and women avoid working for the government or military, whereas most gifted people are absorbed in the search for ways to manage the new civilization with robots and AI.

    On the other hand, Russia and developing countries are still thinking and acting with 19th century mindsets. They value childish vanity, such as which country is bigger than which, has a larger GDP, or has a stronger military.

    　　　

    The Japanese slogan should be “realization of a humane way of life” and “think about others’ well-being”

    　　　

    What should we in Japan do in this situation? Let’s not be too quick to talk about strengthening or abrogating the Japan-U.S. alliance, but rather, let’s get the basics right. Let us put aside for a moment words like “freedom” and “democracy,” which the U.S. and Europe have compromised so much. As these words are considered to be a means to interfere in the societies of developing countries, these terms only provoke their antipathy.    

    　　　

    Instead, we have to get ordinary people in developing countries on our side, and get them to demand more rights and income in a natural way. To this end, we would like to propose the “realization of a humane way of life” as a goal to be pursued through all countries of the world.

    　　　

    The word “humane” contains the lost artifacts of “modernity,” such as respect for one’s own and others’ rights and a high standard of living. On the other hand, for those who pursue selfishness, know no limits, and care little for others, I would like to emphasize the virtues of moderation for the sake of others’ well-being.

    　　　

    While China and India have become the center of the world’s attention, Japan has been completely buried in the world. I would like to make “living a humane life” and “knowing limit of desires” the banner of Japan. These values are inherently very Japanese, and it will be able to make a unique contribution to the world.

  • Japan Will Not Turn Hawkish—Despite a Landslide for the Takaichi LDP

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    On February 8, Japan held a general election for the House of Representatives. Although the chamber still had nearly three years left in its term, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—who had herself been chosen by parliament only last October—declared that she wanted to seek a direct mandate from the public and dissolved the lower house. Under Japan’s Constitution, the prime minister is generally understood to hold effective control over dissolution of the House of Representatives.

    　　

    The result was a political earthquake. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 68 percent of the seats—316 in total—marking the first time in Japanese history that a single party has secured a two-thirds supermajority. The Constitutional Democratic Party, which had held 32 percent of the seats before the election, and Komeito, which had held about 5 percent, chose to merge for this election under the name Centrist Reform Alliance. Even so, the combined bloc ended up with only 10.5 percent of the seats, a humiliating collapse. The remaining 21.5 percent were split among seven old and new parties.

    　　

    Compared with the previous general election in 2024, the LDP increased its vote share by roughly ten percentage points in both single-member districts and proportional representation. In single-member districts, it captured just under 50 percent of the vote. Yet that translated into a stunning 86 percent of district seats—an effect of what Japanese voters often call the “magic” of the single-member district system, where only one candidate wins per district.

    This “magic” reflected two main factors: Prime Minister Takaichi’s popularity—she is seen as upbeat, clear-spoken, and committed to proactive fiscal policy that would improve the economy and everyday life, much like former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe—and the opposition’s strategic missteps at a time when it was already in decline.

    　　

    Since losing power in 2012 (when it was still known as the Democratic Party of Japan), the Constitutional Democratic Party has struggled with falling support and the weakening of labor unions that once sustained its grassroots operations. Komeito, meanwhile, long a coalition partner of the LDP, has faced aging and shrinking membership in Soka Gakkai, the Buddhist organization that underpins its electoral strength. Relations between Komeito and Ms. Takaichi had never been particularly warm, and after she became prime minister, Komeito withdrew from the governing coalition.

    　　

    Just before the election, the two parties merged for House races under the Centrist Reform Alliance banner (while remaining separate parties in the upper house). Under their deal, former Constitutional Democratic candidates monopolized single-member districts, while former Komeito politicians dominated the top spots on the proportional lists.

    　　

    In the era of the LDP–Komeito coalition, LDP candidates typically relied on around 10,000 Komeito votes in each district to secure victory. This time, those votes were gone—and in theory could even have swung to the opposition. Yet the outcome was striking: while all former Komeito candidates won their proportional seats, only seven former Constitutional Democratic candidates prevailed in single-member districts. Together, the two parties saw their combined strength plunge from 172 seats before the election to just 49.

    　　

    A Government That Can “Do Anything”

    　　

    A two-thirds majority effectively enables single-party rule. As long as legislation does not violate the Constitution, the LDP can now pass whatever laws it wishes. Bills can easily clear the lower house, and even if rejected by the upper house—where the LDP holds just over 40 percent of the seats and must rely on support from the Japan Innovation Party to reach a bare majority—they can still become law if the lower house overrides the rejection with a two-thirds vote.

    　　

    The only exception is constitutional revision, which requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers. Even there, however, the ruling party could theoretically reach that threshold in the upper house by peeling off part of the opposition. The LDP has long advocated constitutional revision, partly reflecting a postwar sense that the current constitution was imposed by the U.S. occupation authorities.

    　　

    That said, its goal is not a return to prewar authoritarianism or imperialism. Rather, it seeks to give explicit constitutional status to the Self-Defense Forces—renaming them a military—and to clearly authorize the use of force for self-defense, something taken for granted in most sovereign states.

    It is also worth noting that Japan’s so-called “Three Non-Nuclear Principles”—not possessing nuclear weapons, not producing them, and not allowing them to be brought into Japan—are not statutory law but merely a resolution of the lower house. The third principle, “not allowing introduction,” may gradually be relaxed, though limited to permitting port calls by U.S. vessels carrying nuclear weapons rather than any land-based deployment. Even so, this is not an immediate issue: the United States is still developing nuclear systems that could be deployed in Japan, having previously withdrawn nuclear-armed Tomahawk missiles entirely.

    　　

    This Does Not mean a Hawkish Turn in Public Opinion

    The election result should not be interpreted as evidence that Japanese public opinion has turned hawkish. Young people in Japan are deeply averse to war, and applications to the Self-Defense Forces are declining. Any revival of conscription would be utterly unrealistic.

    What voters want above all is economic stability and cleaner politics. In this election, they placed their bets on Prime Minister Takaichi, who openly emphasized her lineage from the Abe political tradition and spoke clearly about proactive fiscal policy, stronger defense capabilities, political funding reform, and orderly immigration policy.

    Landslide victories often carry the seeds of future crises. Prime Minister Takaichi is known to make bold statements and decisions on her own judgement, and a single misstep could quickly trigger criticism both inside and outside the LDP. Media outlets hostile to the party—and especially to Ms. Takaichi—are likely to dig aggressively for scandals involving government figures. While many women welcome the emergence of Japan’s first female prime minister in decades, some others strongly dislike her.

    Takaichi’s Diplomacy Is Not Hawkish

    Prime Minister Takaichi has long been labeled a hawk—too enthusiastic about the U.S.–Japan alliance and overly tough on China and South Korea. Some of her supporters openly wave anti-China and anti-Korea banners.

    She herself, however, is likely far more flexible. She has already built a close relationship of trust with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, and as both societies change, mutual affinity between Japan and South Korea is growing.

    On Taiwan, Prime Minister Takaichi recently made an overly assertive statement in parliament after being provoked by the opposition. In reality, no one in Japan believes the country could defend Taiwan on its own.

    With China, Takaichi’s position has not deviated in the slightest from the framework of “strategic mutual benefit,” as she told President Xi Jinping at their November meeting. Her upcoming visit to Washington—ahead of former President Trump’s planned April visit to China—should make this clear. Ideally, Japan and the United States would jointly signal a strategy of engaging China as a partner in maintaining regional stability.

    At present, Prime Minister Takaichi arguably enjoys the strongest domestic political base of any leader in the “West.” In that sense, she resembles Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was once labeled “far-right” but consolidated a strong domestic base before adopting a largely mainstream EU stance.

    One might say: Takaichi in the East, Meloni in the West. One can only hope, though, that both Japan and Italy will avoid returning to their old habit of short-lived governments.

  • On the Restarting of This Blog

    This blog existed for approximately 20 years until December of 2024. After being offline for a year. Now it is restarted with the help of the Urban Connections Inc. team. The reason for its disappearance, as noted at the end, was due to technical factors.

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    Past data, as of November 29, 2023, has been preserved by the National Diet Library. You can access it by opening http://web.archive.org, selecting http://www.japan-world-trends.com, and then  choosing November 29, 2023  from the displayed calendar.

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    It so happens that this revival coincides with a great upheaval in the world order. With the return of President Trump, the principles that once defined the “modern” era — freedom, democracy, and the market economy — are losing their privileged position, both in the United States and across Europe. As Trump disregards long-standing alliances and seeks to shape the world through power deals among great nations, even the future of the Japan-U.S. alliance now hangs in the balance.

    Perhaps, then, it is not such a misfortune to begin again from zero — to restart www.japan-world-trends.com as a multilingual platform for a new age. I will be sharing fresh reflections on this changing world, while also reposting some of the older essays that may still have value as historical records.

    /

    This blog is written and edited by Akio Kawato, a former Japanese diplomat. Though once a government official, I have lived as one who refuses to be bound by authority — striving instead for freedom in both thought and life.

    My outlook, presented in my 2025 book In Search of the Lost Modernity, rests on several guiding convictions:

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    • To defend the freedom and rights of every human being.
      At the same time, whether it be white supremacy, eurocentrism, or conversely, the self-aggrandizing assertions of people of color, to prevent discussions detached from reality and facts so that needless conflicts do not arise.
    • To never again repeat the follies that led Japan into its disastrous prewar course — when militaristic arrogance and public frenzy made the war with the United States all but inevitable.
    • To preserve Japan’s economic vitality and creativity.
    • To keep the role of the state as limited as possible.
    • To prevent democracy from decaying into mob rule.

    Now, human civilization itself stands at the threshold of a new dimension. The spread of robots and artificial intelligence is reshaping our daily lives, while advances in brain-wave technology, genetic modification, and the emergence of cyborgs are beginning to transform what it means to be human.

    I do not know how many more years remain to me. But through this blog, I hope to keep observing — and recording — the transformations of our time, as civilization turns a new page.

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