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Author: akiokawato

Twilight of the Modernity

(This thesis was published last year, but the situation has barely changed)

In China and India, various domestic factors hinder growth. But in this respect, the

United States, the European Union, and Japan are not in a better position, either. The West is now deprived of many attributes of the modern era, which facilitated their economic growth.

In Western European countries, the youth has largely lost their cultural backbone; they read far less Greek and Roman classics in school, and they do not go to church. The healthy sense of independence and individualism that used to be prominent among Western whites has been worn away by the universal PC game culture, Japanese anime, and cosplay.

In the United States, freedom and democracy have practically become the prerogative of the successful class. In corporations, executives covet exorbitant compensation, and labor union leaders justify their positions by demanding exorbitant wage hikes and pensions that force corporations to flinch and flee abroad.

　　　

In the US political funding is now effectively unlimited (with anonymity guarded), which allows the rich to control the political process. They use members of Congress to try to shrink the federal government and reduce the tax burden. And the neocon forces of the Democratic Party do not hesitate to intervene in the politics of developing countries by force. Unless people learn a little more to restrain their desire for the sake of others’ well-being, they will destroy their own country.

　　　

The Industrial Revolution in Reverse

　　　

In the 19th century, the rapid industrialization of Western Europe greatly increased the number of people belonging to the “middle class”. The middle class demanded the right to vote, and political parties responded by establishing democratic systems based on the premise that all adults have the right to vote.

Now, however, with the exodus of manufacturing industries overseas, the industrialized countries are in a situation of a “reverse industrial revolution“. In other words, the manufacturing industry is shrinking and the number of relatively high-wage workers and employees generated by the manufacturing industry is decreasing; only the democratic system of one man, one vote remains.

The middle class, with its declining standard of living, is permanently dissatisfied and supports populist politicians and parties that make empty promises to relieve their

plight, leading beyond populism to the rise of an authoritarian far-right. The “modern era” of democracy supported by rising economic and living standards” is in the twilight.

　　　

The Advent of the “New Age of Robotics and AI”

　　　

In the midst of this confusion, the “new age of robotics and AI” is arriving, whether we like it or not. Society may be divided into a very few super elites who design, use, and are used by robots and AI, and a large army of “non-elites”.

　　　

In developed countries, the status and role of the “state” is declining, as more and more young men and women avoid working for the government or military, whereas most gifted people are absorbed in the search for ways to manage the new civilization with robots and AI.

On the other hand, Russia and developing countries are still thinking and acting with 19th century mindsets. They value childish vanity, such as which country is bigger than which, has a larger GDP, or has a stronger military.

　　　

The Japanese slogan should be “realization of a humane way of life” and “think about others’ well-being”

　　　

What should we in Japan do in this situation? Let’s not be too quick to talk about strengthening or abrogating the Japan-U.S. alliance, but rather, let’s get the basics right. Let us put aside for a moment words like “freedom” and “democracy,” which the U.S. and Europe have compromised so much. As these words are considered to be a means to interfere in the societies of developing countries, these terms only provoke their antipathy.

　　　

Instead, we have to get ordinary people in developing countries on our side, and get them to demand more rights and income in a natural way. To this end, we would like to propose the “realization of a humane way of life” as a goal to be pursued through all countries of the world.

　　　

The word “humane” contains the lost artifacts of “modernity,” such as respect for one’s own and others’ rights and a high standard of living. On the other hand, for those who pursue selfishness, know no limits, and care little for others, I would like to emphasize the virtues of moderation for the sake of others’ well-being.

　　　

While China and India have become the center of the world’s attention, Japan has been completely buried in the world. I would like to make “living a humane life” and “knowing limit of desires” the banner of Japan. These values are inherently very Japanese, and it will be able to make a unique contribution to the world.

2026-02-27
Japan Will Not Turn Hawkish—Despite a Landslide for the Takaichi LDP

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On February 8, Japan held a general election for the House of Representatives. Although the chamber still had nearly three years left in its term, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—who had herself been chosen by parliament only last October—declared that she wanted to seek a direct mandate from the public and dissolved the lower house. Under Japan’s Constitution, the prime minister is generally understood to hold effective control over dissolution of the House of Representatives.

　　

The result was a political earthquake. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 68 percent of the seats—316 in total—marking the first time in Japanese history that a single party has secured a two-thirds supermajority. The Constitutional Democratic Party, which had held 32 percent of the seats before the election, and Komeito, which had held about 5 percent, chose to merge for this election under the name Centrist Reform Alliance. Even so, the combined bloc ended up with only 10.5 percent of the seats, a humiliating collapse. The remaining 21.5 percent were split among seven old and new parties.

　　

Compared with the previous general election in 2024, the LDP increased its vote share by roughly ten percentage points in both single-member districts and proportional representation. In single-member districts, it captured just under 50 percent of the vote. Yet that translated into a stunning 86 percent of district seats—an effect of what Japanese voters often call the “magic” of the single-member district system, where only one candidate wins per district.

This “magic” reflected two main factors: Prime Minister Takaichi’s popularity—she is seen as upbeat, clear-spoken, and committed to proactive fiscal policy that would improve the economy and everyday life, much like former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe—and the opposition’s strategic missteps at a time when it was already in decline.

　　

Since losing power in 2012 (when it was still known as the Democratic Party of Japan), the Constitutional Democratic Party has struggled with falling support and the weakening of labor unions that once sustained its grassroots operations. Komeito, meanwhile, long a coalition partner of the LDP, has faced aging and shrinking membership in Soka Gakkai, the Buddhist organization that underpins its electoral strength. Relations between Komeito and Ms. Takaichi had never been particularly warm, and after she became prime minister, Komeito withdrew from the governing coalition.

　　

Just before the election, the two parties merged for House races under the Centrist Reform Alliance banner (while remaining separate parties in the upper house). Under their deal, former Constitutional Democratic candidates monopolized single-member districts, while former Komeito politicians dominated the top spots on the proportional lists.

　　

In the era of the LDP–Komeito coalition, LDP candidates typically relied on around 10,000 Komeito votes in each district to secure victory. This time, those votes were gone—and in theory could even have swung to the opposition. Yet the outcome was striking: while all former Komeito candidates won their proportional seats, only seven former Constitutional Democratic candidates prevailed in single-member districts. Together, the two parties saw their combined strength plunge from 172 seats before the election to just 49.

　　

A Government That Can “Do Anything”

　　

A two-thirds majority effectively enables single-party rule. As long as legislation does not violate the Constitution, the LDP can now pass whatever laws it wishes. Bills can easily clear the lower house, and even if rejected by the upper house—where the LDP holds just over 40 percent of the seats and must rely on support from the Japan Innovation Party to reach a bare majority—they can still become law if the lower house overrides the rejection with a two-thirds vote.

　　

The only exception is constitutional revision, which requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers. Even there, however, the ruling party could theoretically reach that threshold in the upper house by peeling off part of the opposition. The LDP has long advocated constitutional revision, partly reflecting a postwar sense that the current constitution was imposed by the U.S. occupation authorities.

　　

That said, its goal is not a return to prewar authoritarianism or imperialism. Rather, it seeks to give explicit constitutional status to the Self-Defense Forces—renaming them a military—and to clearly authorize the use of force for self-defense, something taken for granted in most sovereign states.

It is also worth noting that Japan’s so-called “Three Non-Nuclear Principles”—not possessing nuclear weapons, not producing them, and not allowing them to be brought into Japan—are not statutory law but merely a resolution of the lower house. The third principle, “not allowing introduction,” may gradually be relaxed, though limited to permitting port calls by U.S. vessels carrying nuclear weapons rather than any land-based deployment. Even so, this is not an immediate issue: the United States is still developing nuclear systems that could be deployed in Japan, having previously withdrawn nuclear-armed Tomahawk missiles entirely.

　　

This Does Not mean a Hawkish Turn in Public Opinion

The election result should not be interpreted as evidence that Japanese public opinion has turned hawkish. Young people in Japan are deeply averse to war, and applications to the Self-Defense Forces are declining. Any revival of conscription would be utterly unrealistic.

What voters want above all is economic stability and cleaner politics. In this election, they placed their bets on Prime Minister Takaichi, who openly emphasized her lineage from the Abe political tradition and spoke clearly about proactive fiscal policy, stronger defense capabilities, political funding reform, and orderly immigration policy.

Landslide victories often carry the seeds of future crises. Prime Minister Takaichi is known to make bold statements and decisions on her own judgement, and a single misstep could quickly trigger criticism both inside and outside the LDP. Media outlets hostile to the party—and especially to Ms. Takaichi—are likely to dig aggressively for scandals involving government figures. While many women welcome the emergence of Japan’s first female prime minister in decades, some others strongly dislike her.

Takaichi’s Diplomacy Is Not Hawkish

Prime Minister Takaichi has long been labeled a hawk—too enthusiastic about the U.S.–Japan alliance and overly tough on China and South Korea. Some of her supporters openly wave anti-China and anti-Korea banners.

She herself, however, is likely far more flexible. She has already built a close relationship of trust with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, and as both societies change, mutual affinity between Japan and South Korea is growing.

On Taiwan, Prime Minister Takaichi recently made an overly assertive statement in parliament after being provoked by the opposition. In reality, no one in Japan believes the country could defend Taiwan on its own.

With China, Takaichi’s position has not deviated in the slightest from the framework of “strategic mutual benefit,” as she told President Xi Jinping at their November meeting. Her upcoming visit to Washington—ahead of former President Trump’s planned April visit to China—should make this clear. Ideally, Japan and the United States would jointly signal a strategy of engaging China as a partner in maintaining regional stability.

At present, Prime Minister Takaichi arguably enjoys the strongest domestic political base of any leader in the “West.” In that sense, she resembles Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was once labeled “far-right” but consolidated a strong domestic base before adopting a largely mainstream EU stance.

One might say: Takaichi in the East, Meloni in the West. One can only hope, though, that both Japan and Italy will avoid returning to their old habit of short-lived governments.

2026-02-17
On the Restarting of This Blog
This blog existed for approximately 20 years until December of 2024. After being offline for a year. Now it is restarted with the help of the Urban Connections Inc. team. The reason for its disappearance, as noted at the end, was due to technical factors.

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Past data, as of November 29, 2023, has been preserved by the National Diet Library. You can access it by opening http://web.archive.org, selecting http://www.japan-world-trends.com, and then choosing November 29, 2023 from the displayed calendar.

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It so happens that this revival coincides with a great upheaval in the world order. With the return of President Trump, the principles that once defined the “modern” era — freedom, democracy, and the market economy — are losing their privileged position, both in the United States and across Europe. As Trump disregards long-standing alliances and seeks to shape the world through power deals among great nations, even the future of the Japan-U.S. alliance now hangs in the balance.

Perhaps, then, it is not such a misfortune to begin again from zero — to restart www.japan-world-trends.com as a multilingual platform for a new age. I will be sharing fresh reflections on this changing world, while also reposting some of the older essays that may still have value as historical records.

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This blog is written and edited by Akio Kawato, a former Japanese diplomat. Though once a government official, I have lived as one who refuses to be bound by authority — striving instead for freedom in both thought and life.

My outlook, presented in my 2025 book In Search of the Lost Modernity, rests on several guiding convictions:

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- To defend the freedom and rights of every human being.
  At the same time, whether it be white supremacy, eurocentrism, or conversely, the self-aggrandizing assertions of people of color, to prevent discussions detached from reality and facts so that needless conflicts do not arise.
- To never again repeat the follies that led Japan into its disastrous prewar course — when militaristic arrogance and public frenzy made the war with the United States all but inevitable.
- To preserve Japan’s economic vitality and creativity.
- To keep the role of the state as limited as possible.
- To prevent democracy from decaying into mob rule.
Now, human civilization itself stands at the threshold of a new dimension. The spread of robots and artificial intelligence is reshaping our daily lives, while advances in brain-wave technology, genetic modification, and the emergence of cyborgs are beginning to transform what it means to be human.

I do not know how many more years remain to me. But through this blog, I hope to keep observing — and recording — the transformations of our time, as civilization turns a new page.
2026-02-17