Civilization

  • Has the Japanese Economy Really Been Shrinking?

    (This column originally appeared in the November 2021 issue of my newsletter “Kaleidoscope of Civilization.” The basic situation has not changed much since then, so I am reposting it here.) . .Akio KAWATO Ever since the 2010 publication of the book The Real Cause of Deflation: Economies Move with Population Waves, a powerful idea has taken root in Japan: that…

  • Can IWON Optical Communication Technology Become Japan’s Savior?

    . KAWATO Akio IWON stands for Innovative Optical & Wireless Network, an optical communications technology now being developed by NTT. Light is also a form of electromagnetic wave, but it has several advantages over conventional radio-based communications. Above all, it allows vastly larger data capacity and longer-distance transmission. Data transmission capacity, NTT alleges, could increase by as much as 125…

  • “Civilizational Rupture”

    About twenty-five years ago, I published a collection of essays titled Toward a World Where Meaning Disintegrates. It traced the social transformations unfolding in Russia, Western Europe, the United States, Uzbekistan, and Japan. What I tried to argue there was that several of the core values that had sustained the modern world were beginning to lose their absolute authority. .…

  • Comedic Variants for European Serious Operas

    The other day I went to see Wagner’s Lohengrin—performed by the Nikikai Opera Company with the Tokyo Metropolitan Symphony Orchestra. The performance itself was magnificent. But the opera? The libretto struck me as Wagnerian in the worst sense: childish, contrived, and absurdly solemn. And musically this is still early Wagner—endless repetitions of the same booming triads: do-mi-sol, so-shi-re, over and…

  • The history of the Warburg family

    (I lately came across this intriguing piece in my own email magazine, “The Kaleidoscope of Civilization”. Let me post this for fun.) . Akio KAWATO There are several banks around the world bearing the name Warburg. They form part of a global financial network connected to the Jewish Warburg family. . One member of the family, Paul Warburg, moved to…

  • “From ‘Markets = Wealth’ Back to ‘Territory = Wealth’”

    Watching the way Trump and Putin speak and act, one cannot help but feel how fundamentally different their mindset is from ours. Seizing land through connections, force, and money, then developing it for enormous profit—Trump seems to view the world with the mentality of a ruthless land developer, which he really is. It is like a schoolyard bully who never…

  • The Foundations of “Modernity” Are Gone—So We Need New Institutions

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　.Akio KAWATO In Japan, Europe, and the United States, we still debate politics using the modern values of “freedom” and “democracy.” But the real foundation supporting those values was the economic development of Western Europe since the 17th century—above all, the dramatic rise in productivity brought by manufacturing. As manufacturing expanded, more people were able to earn solid middle-class incomes…

  • Is Lehman 2.0 Around the Corner? What Happens If It Hits?

    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Akio Kawato In September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought the world economy to a temporary halt. Today, excess liquidity in Japan and the United States, stock market bubbles, and ever-expanding fiscal deficits are raising fears of “another 2008.” Yet even if the next crisis resembles 2008, the scenery will be somewhat different. That difference is worth examining. .…

  • Does the Iran War Herald the Advent of the “Euro Renminbi”

    Akio Kawato Since the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID shock of 2020, the United States has continuously expanded the supply of dollars. Federal debt has now exceeded the size of annual GDP. Policymakers fear that, at some point, this could erode confidence in U.S. Treasuries, trigger a surge in interest rates, and destabilize public finances. . Could the current…

  • After America: What Middle Powers Can Still Build

    Iran ceasefire talks are now beginning. Had the war continued, Iran’s retaliation might well have threatened the very survival of Gulf civilization itself, while also exposing the limits of U.S. military power and potentially bringing an end to America’s unipolar dominance. The ceasefire has, at least for now, bought everyone some breathing room. . Even so, this latest attack on…