It was interesting to note during the "primary" how the Japanese potentially wish a direct election of prime-minister. In the past we condoned that prime-minister is selected by esoteric negotiation among main fractions in the LDP. It was possible because our incomes constantly grew. We did not care, therefore, who will govern the country. But now it is as if the whole Japan had become one village community where everyone wants to express oneself. This is largely because our incomes do not grow as before, and because the media, TV among others, made it possible that ordinary people express themselves in public. I name it as Direct Democracy via TV.

During the “primary” for the post of LDP president, Fukuda was less popular than his flamboyant opponent Aso. What he says was correct, but was out of touch of the society. Fukuda’s values derive from the age when the triangle between the mighty (at that time) bureaucrats, politicians and big companies made possible a cryptic and boring politics: internationally to act as a close ally (or vassal to put it more frankly) of the USA and domestically to redistribute newly created wealth.

Meanwhile, the Japanese media and the society as a whole are eager to see next general election. For the Upper House is now dominated by the opposition party, Democratic Party, and it will block approval of any important bills, including the one which enables Japanese maritime Self-Defense Forces to continue supply of fuel to the Western military vessels in the Indian Ocean (This is done as Japan’s contribution to anti-terrorist fight in Afghanistan).

Therefore, what Fukuda will say and do will be constantly under malicious perusal by the media. I am sure that they will keep digging up any mal-transactions of money by members of the Cabinet, and that they will attack Fukuda’s statements, if they go against the tide in the society.

Fukuda himself used to be Chief Cabinet Secretary (It corresponds Chief of Staff in the White House in the USA) in early Koizumi era, and therefore he cannot go against many “Koizumi Reform” measures (Fukuda’s approach, though, will be more cryptic than Koizumi’s with more back-stage coordination). In diplomacy he will firmly stand for maintenance of the Japan-US alliance, at the same time being softer vis-à-vis East Asian countries. In North Korean abduction issue his stance will be more realistic than his predecessors. .

No matter who rules Japan, his or her task will be a daunting one. Companies are having record profits, partly because they transferred a large part of their production abroad, to China among others. But good jobs have been lost within Japan and many people (including myself) have ended up in lower-paid positions. Koizumi wanted to cut the budget deficit and did it at the sacrifice of public construction of infrastructure in provinces. Construction companies in provinces used to be job-providers and vote-collectors for the LDP. Koizumi, counting on the support of urban voters (volatile and usually anti-LDP), antagonized the province, the citadel of the LDP.

Now Ozawa, president of the Democratic Party and a former veteran of the LDP, calls for more expenditure in provinces. He is also utilizing the suspicion of the Japanese in the efficacy of the Japan-US alliance. Opinion polls show that the majority of the Japanese do not support the Iraq war and that many wonder whether the US provides Japan with security against North Korea’s nukes. So, interestingly enough, Ozawa's policy is a combination of the past LDP and the defunct pro-Soviet Socialist Party. (Incidentally, the Democratic Party is a composite of ex-LDP and ex-Socialist Party members plus younger technocrats who deserted the ailing government.)

The Japanese have realized that Koizumi’s reform was done at their own sacrifice, and then they were strongly disillusioned by Abe whom they so enthusiastically applauded just one year ago. We will see whether Japanese voters can quickly draw lessons from this experience and become mature enough to reject populist approaches.